Gold

AI Bubble, Gold and Market Hedges: Preparing Without Predicting

I have had an interesting cluster of questions from clients recently.

What happens if the AI boom turns into an AI bust? Should we buy gold? Commodities? Should we hedge the stock market? One client even asked whether shorting Oracle might be a way to protect against an AI bubble bursting.

There is a little irony in writing about the risks of an AI bubble at the same time AI is becoming a bigger part of how people find financial advice. Over the past several months, ATX Portfolio Advisors has been showing up consistently when people ask various AI models to recommend an Austin financial planner, fiduciary advisor, or fee-only financial advisor.

I am obviously pleased to see that. More importantly, I think it reflects something useful about how search is changing. People are no longer just typing a few keywords into Google. They are asking much more specific questions about who they should trust, what type of advisor they need, and how different firms approach investing and financial planning.

That makes AI particularly relevant to me in two very different ways. It may be changing how businesses operate and how investors find advice, but that still does not tell us whether AI-related stocks are currently overvalued, when enthusiasm might cool, or what the next market selloff will look like.

These are reasonable questions. When markets have been strong and a relatively small group of companies seems to dominate the headlines, it is natural to start thinking about what might bring the party to an end.

My answer, though, usually starts with another question.

Are we trying to manage risk, or are we trying to predict what happens next?

Gold Medals and the Discipline of Compounding | Jeff Weeks, CFP®

The U.S. men’s hockey team just won its third Olympic gold in history and its second since 1980. Two championships over four decades underscore how rare certain outcomes are. The 1980 “Miracle on Ice” at Lake Placid became iconic, not because it was predictable, but because it was extraordinary.

That same year, gold prices reached a dramatic peak, trading around $800 per ounce. High inflation, elevated geopolitical tensions, and widespread investor anxiety prevailed. Sound familiar?

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