I often am asked what I think is going to happen in the stock market. For anyone that has read this blog or spoken to me for any period of time on the topic of investing, you probably know that there is scant evidence that “smart” investors can consistently outsmart the market. Yet, I still get asked what I think is going to happen.
I recently read a book called The End of Average. In it, the author told a story about a problem the US Air Force had with their new jets in the late 1940’s. A bunch of them were crashing.
Investors can learn a lesson from this problem.
“Bulls Return,” read the headline on a daily newsletter that I subscribe to. The article wasn’t referring to next month’s Rodeo Austin. The subject was the stock market, or more specifically, the mostly upward price movement since the big selloff last Christmas Eve.
But if the bulls (buyers) have returned, that implies that they left. If they left, where did they go?