Accountable Update

A Picture is Worth Thousands ($)

What do you think about when you walk into a place that puts the “Employee of the Month” picture on the wall? We've all seen them at auto dealerships, retail stores, and even some restaurants. I don’t know about most folks, but for me, that is generally the last person I want to speak to at a business.

“Why? Wouldn’t you want to work with the best employee,” you may ask?

Absolutely, but the “best” employee for the employer isn’t necessarily the best for the customer. That is why it may serve you well to avoid those with the glamour shots hanging on the wall.

I have a confession to make. I didn’t come to this realization by being suckered into an expensive undercoating on a car that never sees road salt in temperate Texas winters. Nor have I been swayed by one too many pretty waitresses stooping down to eye level to see if I need another margarita. (Actually, that one may not be entirely true.)

No, I came to this point of view after years of striving to be the employee of the month/quarter/year, or later as a manager, being the person who choose said employee. The honorees always had one thing in common, besides the photos, plaques, and trophies.

They sold the most stuff.

The titles varied over time. “Investment Representative”, “Financial Planning Consultant”, and “Account Executive” were just a few of the business card descriptions used at my old company. What they all had in common were that they were primarily measured, ranked, and promoted because of their success in “development”, aka, sales.

Wonder if regulators understand how it works? See FINRA’s descriptions on their website:

 “A broker-dealer is a person or company that is in the business of buying and selling securities—stocks, bonds, mutual funds, and certain other investment products—on behalf of its customers (as broker), for its own account (as dealer), or both. Individuals who work for broker-dealers—the sales personnel whom most people call brokers—are technically known as registered representatives. [emphasis added]

Registered representatives are primarily securities salespeople [emphasis added] and may also go by such generic titles as financial consultant, financial advisor, or investment consultant. The products they can sell you depend on the licenses they hold. For example, a representative who has passed the Series 6 exam can sell only mutual funds, variable annuities, and similar products, while the holder of a Series 7 license can sell a broader array of securities. When a registered representative suggests that you buy or sell a particular security, he or she must have reason to believe that the recommendation is suitable for you based on a host of factors, including your income, portfolio, and overall financial situation, your tolerance for risk, and your stated investment objectives.”[i]

Notice that nowhere in the description does it suggest that it is the RR’s job to put the customer’s interest first. Their job is to sell.

As a young employee, I was taught that success was meeting sales goals. The more goals I hit, the more recognition and money I received. When I was new to the sales role, the top performing RR in my office once advised me that if you weren’t generating an occasional customer complaint, you weren’t selling hard enough.

As a manager, I had a long-time top performing salesperson (who had had several brushes with customer complaints) say to me that as long as he exceeded his annuity goals that no one at the company had ever given him grief. He still works there today, in spite of my best efforts.

Over time, as you are recognized for meeting and exceeding sales goals, you accumulate mementos of the “achievements”. Little trophies, certificates, and photos commemorating the award trips and honors clutter the desks and walls of the top achieving RRs at every brokerage firm.

It can be addicting. Once you’ve tasted the nectar, you want more of it. To get more, you MAY work harder. At least that’s what senior management likes to tell themselves and Compliance departments hope to insure. But the reality is that corners get cut, half-truths are told to expedite sales, and the illusion of “expert” advice is presented in the most scalable (cookie cutter) way.

The realization that profits were prioritized over client portfolios didn’t happen overnight for me. It started with annual mandatory meetings to discuss why client accounts that we managed didn’t perform as well as they seemingly should have. Even as academic evidence[ii] began to mount that explained that the fees were the main drag on returns, no one ever suggested that the 1.75% combination of advisory fees + underlying mutual fund costs virtually guaranteed under-performance.

The bullet points provided by the company were designed as much to reassure the RRs to keep selling the high fee accounts as much as they were to provide talking points for wary clients. To underscore these conversations, managers were regularly treated to “Finance Updates” that clearly showed how important these highest fee “solutions” were to the bottom line.

The message was simple, if you wanted to get ahead, the path to success was to sell the most profitable (to the firm) products.

To be clear, I think the vast majority of brokers want to do the right thing for their clients. Like I said, many of my old company’s training efforts were designed as much to convince RRs that they were selling the best product as much as they were to handle customer objections. In fact, they were all just working within a system that is built to take advantage of the average investor that just doesn’t know any better.

How can you protect yourself from a system that some may describe as rigged? Start by looking at the pictures on the wall.

Another approach, of course, would be to seek out an independent advisor that puts your interests ahead of their own. One that is completely transparent about fees, portfolio construction, and performance. If that appeals to you, get in touch.

 

[i] http://www.finra.org/investors/brokers

[ii]EUGENE F. FAMA and KENNETH R. FRENCH, Luck versus Skill in the Cross-Section of Mutual Fund Returns, THE JOURNAL OF FINANCE • VOL. LXV, NO. 5 • OCTOBER 2010

Money For Nothing and College For Free?

$37,172

That is the AVERAGE student loan debt for a college graduate this year.[i] Considering that 71% of students graduating from four-year colleges carry some student loan debt,[ii] it is little wonder that an avowed socialist promising free college for everyone almost became the Democratic Party’s nominee for President.

Maybe we don't all agree on the policies for how to pay for anything, but it is hard to dispute the value of a secondary education. Researchers say college grads earn about $1 million more than those without degrees over their lifetimes.[iii] For that reason alone, we should try and encourage as many qualified folks as we can to go to college, right? If more students go to college, they in turn would earn more income. Earn more income, pay more taxes, take less public support, and generally feed a virtuous cycle.

The idea was so appealing to the masses that the Democrats have adopted free college and student loan relief into the party’s platform. Free college and no more debt. How could that be controversial? If you're getting the benefit, it sounds like a great deal.

Who isn't in favor of a government program that pays you money? I took the GI Bill and a paycheck from the US Army Reserves in college to help ends meet (with some strings attached). Just to be clear, I view taxes as a reasonable cost of living in a country that affords me and my family the freedoms and security we enjoy, albeit I sure wouldn’t mind if someone out there would like to pay mine. 

While we wait for that to be sorted out, I propose a more Accountable approach. One that doesn’t rely upon someone else paying their "fair share". 

Most of the time, when I discuss college planning with a client, we look at the cost of attending the schools that we think may be most appropriate based on Junior’s grades, ambitions, and preferences. We consider the type of school most likely to admit the prospective student along with the estimated costs of attending said institution. The average costs for college, according to my financial planning software MoneyGuidePro®, are $96,244 for an In-State Public College (4 years, including books, tuition, room/board) and $191,324 for a Private University.

Neither option is particularly cheap, but being flexible can result in dramatically different outcomes, financially speaking. Let’s look at a couple of scenarios that I’ve discussed with clients recently. Both had kids accepted into multiple public and private schools

The first student, we’ll call him Ken, wants to attend Baylor University. MoneyGuidePro® says it will cost $52,834 per year. Mom and Dad have saved up about $100,000 in a 529 plan, but figured they could contribute another $15,000 per year from current income. The difference of $51,336 over four years will have to come from either scholarships, Ken's earnings (yes, working through college is still legal), or loans. Because of their income level, they almost certainly will receive no tax credits or grants. It’s not hard to see how a loan balance approaching $40k for a typical student is easy to accumulate by graduation.

Let’s say Ken graduates in four years with $40K in debt. If he then pays it off over the following 10 years at an average interest rate of @ 6.5%, he’ll spend about $5,564 per year in principal and interest retiring the burden. 

The second student, Barbie, wants to attend Texas Tech University. Instead of going directly to Lubbock, she is open to staying home to attend Austin Community College for her first two years. The cost for ACC is about $10k per year, if Barbie lives at home. If she then transfers to Tech for her junior and senior years, her costs will increase to about $19k per year. Mom and Dad had been thoughtful enough and able to put away about $60,000 in college savings, so in this scenario, it looks very likely that Barbie will be able to graduate with no debt as long as she does her part academically.

Since she won’t have a student loan to pay off, she could spend the 10 years after graduation maxing out a contribution to a Roth IRA (currently $5,500 per year) instead of paying off a loan. Even if she decides to stop contributing at the end of that decade at age 31, those 10 years of Roth IRA contributions growing at 8% per year would be worth $1,272,281 at the current Social Security Full Retirement Age of 67. In other words, figuring out a way to pay for college with no debt could easily result in having $1,000,000+ more than Ken, all things being equal with earnings, by retirement age.

You know what they say? A $1,000,000 here (from being a college grad), a $1,000,000 there (from planning and discipline), and by retirement you could have some real money to Bern. 

At ATX Portfolio Advisors, we believe that education is one of the best investments we can make. To that end, when we manage college savings through a 529 Plan, we do not charge an advisory fee on those assets. If you would like to discuss college cost for a child or grandchild, get in touch.

 

[i] newyorkfed.org here and here and clevelandfed.org here

[ii]  Ticas.org

[iii] https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/current_issues/ci20-3.pdf

Hard Work, Optimism, and Good Cheer

Softball.jpg

It may have not been noticed by many, but I just took a couple of weeks off from the Accountable Update. The break was primarily due to a competing obligation, coaching my daughter's softball team. If you had tried to tell me when we started tryouts back in February that we would still be playing in mid-July at the PONY World Series in Lafayette, LA, I probably would have asked for your keys or at least checked to see if you had a designated driver. But as my daughter reminds me every time she overhears me talking about this group of overachievers, the hard working young ladies that made up our team believed from the beginning that they could earn a trip to the Bayou State as long as they kept working and believing. 

It would have been easy to point out that last year, we didn't even have enough players in her age group to field a team, or that we lacked depth and experience at key positions, or that we were plagued by injuries and scheduling conflicts. Instead, they totally bought in to our motto that "hard work pays off" and showed up in the Texas heat 3-4 days a week to work on getting better.

They went through drills and repetitions of the basics of defense, pitching, and putting the ball in play at every practice. Throwing, catching, ground balls, fly balls as well as hitting cutoffs and running the bases were repeated over, and over, and over, etc. Batting practice always included laying down bunts. After all of that, we worked on conditioning to end each practice.

Then we went out and lost the only game we played in our first tournament, mainly because we didn't do many of the things we had been practicing very well. But something clicked at the next tournament, and kept clicking all the way to Lafayette. Once the girls started to see the evidence that through focusing on the basics they were getting better and stronger, it helped them to stay enthusiastic when the ball took a bad bounce or an umpire made a bad call. 

If you've never witnessed a fast-pitch softball game, then you may not appreciate the value of enthusiasm. But hearing a dozen 12 year old girls doing LOUD chants ranging from the adorably cute to the absolutely cutthroat, can be extremely motivating or intimidating, depending on your perspective. That enthusiasm was infectious and would keep us in games that otherwise looked like big mismatches. It also offered a great lesson for all of us, especially in the investment world.

Enthusiasm can be difficult to maintain when the chips are down. With a seemingly never ending stream of horrible headlines, charlatans masquerading luck as skill, the echo chambers of social media, and divisive rhetoric from political "leaders" that often makes us feel pessimistic about our future, it's a wonder that any of us can view a glass as anything other than empty. 

All it took was a week in Lafayette with a fabulous, hardworking, overachieving group of 12 year old girls to remind me that focusing on the basics and being optimistic can take us to unexpected heights.

If you still aren't feeling it, the following article by DFA's Jim Parker in his recent “Outside the Flags” column offers some other reasons to be optimistic that we may actually, somehow, be headed in the right direction.

Like Lafayette.

 

10 Reasons to Be Cheerful

Do you ever listen to the news and find yourself thinking that the world has gone to the dogs? The roll call of depressing headlines seems endless. But look beyond what the media calls news, and there also are a lot of things going right.

It’s true the world faces challenges in many areas, and the headlines reflect that. Europe has been grappling with a flood of refugees; as of May, the Chinese local A-share market declined by almost 20 percent1; and the US is in the middle of a sometimes rancorous election campaign.

More recently, citizens of the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union, creating significant uncertainty in markets over the long-term implications.

But it’s also easy to overlook the significant advances made in raising the living standards of millions, increasing global cooperation on various issues, and improving access to healthcare and other services across the world.

Many of the 10 developments cited below don’t tend to make the front pages of daily newspapers or the lead items in the TV news, but they’re worth keeping in mind on those occasions when you feel overwhelmed by all the grim headlines.

So here’s an alternative news bulletin:

  1. Over the last 25 years ending May 2016, one dollar invested in a global portfolio of stocks would have grown to more than five and a half dollars.2
  2. Over the last 25 years, 2 billion people globally have moved out of extreme poverty, according to the latest United Nations Human Development Report.3
  3. Over the same period, mortality rates among children under the age of 5 have fallen by 53%, from 91 deaths per 1000 to 43 deaths per 1000.
  4. Globally, life expectancy has been improving. From 2000 to 2015, according to the World Health Organization, the global increase was 5.0 years, with an even larger increase of 9.4 years in parts of Africa.4
  5. Global trade has expanded as a proportion of GDP from 20% in 1995 to 30% by 2014, signaling greater global integration.5
  6. Access to financial services has greatly expanded in developing countries. According to the World Bank, among adults in the poorest 40% of households within developing economies, the share without a bank account fell by 17 percentage points on average between 2011 and 2014.6
  7. The world’s biggest economy, the US, has been recovering. Unemployment has halved in six years from nearly 10% to 5%.7
  8. The world is exploring new sources of renewable energy. According to the International Energy Agency, in 2014, renewable energy such as wind and solar expanded at its fastest rate to date and accounted for more than 45% of net additions to world capacity in the power sector.8
  9. We live in an era of innovation. One report estimates the digital economy now accounts for 22.5% of global economic output.9
  10. The growing speed and scale of data is increasing global connectedness. According to a report by McKinsey & Company, cross-border bandwidth has grown by a factor of 45 in the past decade, boosting productivity and GDP.10

No doubt many of these advances will lead to new business and investment opportunities. Of course, not all will succeed. But the important point is that science and innovation are evolving in ways that may help mankind.

The world is far from perfect. The human race faces challenges. But just as it is important to be realistic and aware of the downside of our condition, we must also recognize the major advances that we are making.

Just as there is reason for caution, there is always room for hope. And keeping those good things in mind can help when you feel overwhelmed by all the bad news.

Notes

1. As measured by the MSCI A Share Net Dividends Index in CNY. 
2. As measured by the MSCI All Country World Index (gross dividends) in USD. 
3. “Human Development Report 2015: Work for Human Development," United Nations. 
4. “World Health Statistics 2016,” World Health Organization. 
5. “International Trade Statistics 2015,” World Trade Organization. 
6. “The Global Findex Database 2014: Measuring Financial Inclusion Around the World,” World Bank. 
7. US Bureau of Labor Statistics, 15 March 2016. 
8. “Renewable Energy Market Report 2015,” International Energy Agency. 
9. “Digital Disruption: The Growth Multiplier,” Accenture and Oxford Economics, February 2016. 
10. “Digital Globalization: The New Era of Global Flows,” McKinsey & Company, March 2016.

About Jim Parker
Jim Parker is a Vice President for DFA Australia Limited, a subsidiary of Dimensional Fund Advisors. As head of the communications and marketing team in Australia, Jim helps create strategies to communicate Dimensional's philosophy and process in ways that engage clients, prospects, regulators, and the media. He does so through presentations, books, papers, and articles, including his "Outside the Flags" column and, more recently, his weekly "Coffee Break" links to interesting articles. 

Jim joined Dimensional in 2006 after 25 years working as a journalist in newspapers, television, radio, and online media. His specialty was financial journalism, particularly in relation to economics and financial markets. Jim holds a bachelor of arts in social and economic history from Deakin University and a journalism certificate from Auckland Technical Institute.