Volatility

What Now?

Barring a major rally today, both the US stock market (as represented by the Russell 3000 Index) and bond market (Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index) will log their third consecutive quarter of negative returns. If that seems unusual, you are correct. In fact, from March 1979 - March 2022, less than one out of ten quarters (14/173) have experienced negative returns from both US Stocks and US Bonds.

Should You Sell?

World stock markets have been in decline for the past 6 months or so. Not surprisingly, the lower we go, the more pessimistic we tend to be. Just this week, I have seen some analysts predicting that we are perhaps just halfway through this bear market with another 25% downside from here lasting until late in the year.

Let me just say that I have no idea what stocks will do today, next week, month, or even year. However, I can look to history to offer some guidance as to how to manage these unsettling (but, not particularly unusual) periods of volatility.